>>>  名人論史——近當代作家的史學觀點  >>>

簡體     傳統

What Flight MH370 Tells Us About the US in Asia

In the wake of a terrible tragedy, the U.S. is proving why it is indispensable to the Asia-Pacific region.

By Yang Hengjun

March 21, 2014

It’s been over a week since Flight MH370 dropped out of contact, and it seems as though it has vanished off the face of the earth. At first, people in China were full of hope—they lit candles and prayed, hoping that the plane had simply gotten lost and would appear the next instant on radar or a small island. The Malaysian authorities hemmed and hawed, contradicting themselves in their remarks. Despite this, most of the Chinese people, who think the best of people, still consciously and stubbornly resisted the temptation of “conspiracy theories”—until the Malaysian prime minister, in a press conference, confirmed the same conjectures and “conspiracy theories” they had previously denied.

It seems increasingly likely that this incident was a terrorist hijacking! Malaysian officials even claimed that the plane may have already landed when it made contact with a satellite! The U.S. media pointed out that the plane’s flight was similar to tactical avoidance maneuvers. The son-in-law of Osama Bin Laden also revealed that a pilot once made plans to hijack an airplane… At present, the number of countries participating in the search has increased from 14 to 26. Malaysia has even begun to ask for the help from central Asian countries to look for the lost plane. The relatives of those aboard, who thought that plane must have suffered a grim fate, have renewed their hope. For them, understandably, a “terrorist hijacking” is not worse than a “fatal crash.”

In the MH370 incident, China may suffer the largest loss of life. Malaysia may run into an unexpected drop in tourism recession and financial problems. It is rare for a pilot to hijack a plane, and to create such a large incident is even rarer. This will fundamentally shake the world’s confidence in the reputation and national governance of Malaysia. Vietnam’s efforts seem to have been in vain and the neighboring countries are still in shock. Only the United States, with its indisputable soft and hard power, uses the incident of Flight 370 to wordlessly announce: I have returned to Asia!

If an air crash occurs in the Americas, the United States would be the unquestioned leader of an investigation. If such an incident happened in Europe, both France and the UK have considerable strength, and the U.S. would also rush to assist. If in Africa, the U.S., UK, Germany and France would rush to the rescue. But what about Asia? Which country should Malaysia have turned to in the first moment to seek help? In the past twelve days spent searching for both the plane and the truth, the U.S. has not only shown itself as alone in possessing the most sophisticated search and rescue technology, but has also displayed advanced human intelligence that far surpasses that of all other countries in this region. Didn’t all of the information finally confirmed as correct come from the U.S. media and “relevant persons” in America?

There are three pillars for the U.S. to return to Asia. First, to strengthen alliance relationships such as those between the U.S. and Japan, South Korea and Australia. Second, to effectively manage relations with China, which is the so-called “new type great power relations.” Third, to use American soft and hard power to demonstrate its irreplaceable role in the Asia-Pacific region. The MH370 incident thus provides a rare opportunity for America.

As a terrorist hijacking of Flight 370 seems more and more likely, the U.S. shows the Asian countries that terrorist attacks like 9-11 are not far removed from Asia. If this incident turns out to have been caused by terrorists, it will be the largest terrorist attack that China has suffered from at the international level and would be similar to the United States’ experience of 9-11. The U.S. has repeatedly asked Asian countries (especially in those Southeast Asia) for their understanding and support of its anti-terrorist efforts in Afghanistan, but the responses have been lukewarm. In the future, could this situation change?

In a few days, the Nuclear Security Summit will take place in the Netherlands. The Nuclear Security Summit, launched by the rather apologetic Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama, is a global summit that aims to advocate for nuclear safety and fight against nuclear terrorism. The first summit in 2010 was held in Washington, with its main goal to strengthen international cooperation to respond to the threat of nuclear terrorism.” But the summit became a negotiation between the U.S. and Russia about reducing nuclear weapons and ended fruitlessly. In 2012, the theme of the second nuclear summit held in Seoul, South Korea, was to improve the security of nuclear materials and nuclear facilities, but Japan successfully changed the topic and made participating countries pay more attention to the North Korean nuclear threat. Both of these summits attracted the attendance of heavyweight leaders such as the Chinese president, had high standards, and saw much activity, but looking back, it’s hard to see what the results were.

The third Nuclear Security Summit will be held next seek in The Hague from March 24 to 25, 2014. There will be 53 countries, 4 international organizations, 58 leaders and thousands of delegates and reporters attending the summit. The main goal of this international summit is to prevent nuclear terrorism on a global scale. If terrorists get a hold of knives, they can kill people; they can remorselessly turn a plane into a weapon. It is not hard to imagine what the result would be if they obtain nuclear materials or weapons. If only for this reason, this session of summit cannot and should not be an ineffective high-level show, where top leaders merely get together and shake hands. It’s an opportunity for the Nuclear Security Summit and a chance for Obama to use this platform to establish his legacy.

The MH370 incident is still ambiguous and the truth has not been revealed to the world. The priority is to search for the plane, rescue the victims and find the truth — not to make up “conspiracy theories” about the United States. But when disaster strikes, it’s easier to see the extent of national power and the chess matches among each country. China should learn from this and realize that terrorism is not limited to the Middle East, Europe and New York. It has already come close to China, and even taken place within Chinese territory. Moreover, the rise of a great power doesn’t mean a huge army with even more massive military spending. Rather, it means practical, high-tech military technology and advanced equipment. Finally, a responsible big power must be deeply involved in regional and international affairs, to make the world feel the significance and necessity of its existence.

This piece srcly appeared in Chinese on Yang Hengjun’s blog. The src post can be found here.

Yang Hengjun is a Chinese independent scholar, novelist, and blogger. He once worked in the Chinese Foreign Ministry and as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC. Yang received his Ph.D. from the University of Technology, Sydney in Australia. His Chinese language blog is featured on major Chinese current affairs and international relations portals and his pieces receive millions of hits each day. Yang’s blog can be accessed at www.yanghengjun.com

原文：

马航370给美国提供了哪些机会？

文 | 杨恒均

马航370失联超过八天，好像人间蒸发一样。一开始，中国人都怀着良好的愿望，点蜡烛、祈福，希望飞机只不过是迷路了，下一刻钟就会突然出现在雷达上，或某个小岛上。马国当局虽一直支支吾吾、前言不搭后语，但与人为善的中国人大多仍然在自觉而顽固地抵制“阴谋论”的诱惑，直到马国总理记者会上一个一个地肯定了他们之前否定的那些猜测，还有那些“阴谋论”。

恐怖劫机的可能性越来越大！今天马方甚至爆出猛料：飞机与卫星联系时可能已降落！美媒则指出：客机曾做战术躲避动作，而拉登的女婿也跳了出来，放风说一名飞行员曾策划劫机……目前参与搜寻的国家数目也从14个增加到25个。马国甚至开始请求中亚国家帮助寻找失联飞机。原本以为这架飞机凶多吉少的亲属反而重燃希望，要知道，“恐怖劫机”，并不比“机毁人亡”更恐怖。

马航370事件，中国可能遭受最多的生命损失；马来西亚恐怕会遭遇无法想像的旅游衰退与经济困境——飞行员劫机实属罕见，弄出这么大阵仗的更是前所未有，这都将会从根本上动摇世人对马来西亚国家信誉与国家治理的信心；越南瞎忙乎了一通，周边国家都还惊魂未定……唯独美国，以自己无可争辩的软、硬实力，借马航370事件无声地宣布：我重返亚洲了！

如果美洲发生空难，美国应该是当之无愧的带头老大哥；如果欧洲发生空难，法国、英国等都有很强的实力，美国也会及时介入；如果非洲发生空难，美、英、德、法等国都会驰援；如果亚洲发生空难呢？马来西亚应该第一时间向哪个国家求助？——在过去八天搜寻的飞机和真相的过程中，美国不但展示了只有他才拥有的最尖端的搜索与救援科技，甚至连人力情报，都是这个地区任何国家都远远不及的：最后被证实为正确的消息有几条不是来自美国媒体和美国的“相关人士”？

美国重返亚洲有三大支柱：一是强化美、日、韩、澳等盟国关系；二是处理好同中国的关系，所谓“新型大国关系”；三是以其软、硬实力在亚太国家间发挥无法取代的作用。马航370事件给美国提供了难得的机会。

当事件越来越接近恐怖劫持时，美国让亚洲国家都看到：911离亚洲诸国也并不遥远。如果这次是极端恐怖份子所为，将是中国在国际上遭遇的最大恐怖袭击，无异于美国的911。美国曾多次请求亚洲（尤其是东南亚）国家对他在阿富汗的反恐予以理解与支持，都遭遇了不冷不热，今后情况会不会有所改变？

再过几天核安全峰会就要在荷兰举行了。核安全峰会是获得诺贝尔和平奖的奥巴马觉得实在过意不去而发起的旨在倡导核安全和打击防范核恐怖主义的全球性峰会。2010年首届峰会在华盛顿举行，此次峰会主题通过加强国际合作来应对核恐怖主义威胁。但会议开成了美俄谈判减少核子武器，无果而终。2012年在韩国首尔举行的第二届核峰会则以加强核材料和核设施安全为主题，但日本成功转移话题，引导与会诸国更多关注朝鲜核威胁。虽然两次会议都吸引了中国国家主席等这些重量级领导人参加，会议规格高，也很热闹，但回头看，效果并不明显。

第三届核安全峰会将于一个星期后的2014年3月24日至25日在荷兰海牙举行，届时全球将有53个国家、4个国际组织、58位领导人，以及数千名代表和记者参加，这一届国际峰会旨在全球范围内防止核恐怖主义。想一下就不难明白：如果恐怖份子捏一把砍刀就能杀人，丧尽天良把飞机变成武器，等他们得到核子材料或武器，会怎样？仅仅从这个意义上说，这届核安全峰会就不会、也不应该开成最高领导人聚聚会、握握手却毫无实效的高峰秀。这是核安全峰会的机会，也是要借此扬名立万的奥巴马的机会。

马航370扑朔迷离，真相尚未大白于天下，当务之急是搜寻飞机，救人寻真相，而不是搞一个针对美国的“阴谋论”。但灾难发生时，更能看清国家实力与各国之间的博弈，中国不妨学着点，恐怖主义早不只限于中东、欧洲与纽约，已经逼近中国甚至就发生在中国境内；大国崛起绝不是庞大的军队与更庞大的军事开支，而是扎扎实实的军事高科技与先进的设备；负责任的大国需要更深地卷入到地区与国际事务中，让世界感觉到你存在的意义与必要性。

杨恒均 2014.3.17

杨恒均 2015-08-23 08:53:44